The Engine Room

Live Data

Where the pump price is mechanically assembled. Understand every component that determines what you pay at the pump — from international spot prices to government levies.

Last Updated: March 2026
Brent Crude
$97/bbl
+5.3% MTD
ZAR/USD
R16.85
-2.1% MTD
Diesel Crack
$64/bbl
+256% vs avg
AFRA Rate
+$3.20/bbl
Elevated
Import Dependency
53%
Growing
Risk Level
HIGH
Hormuz Crisis
The Basic Fuel Price (BFP) Formula
How your pump price is mechanically calculated every day by the Central Energy Fund
1

International Spot Prices

Petrol: 50% Mediterranean + 50% Singapore
Diesel: 50% Mediterranean + 50% Arab Gulf

Current: ~$97/bbl
2

USD to ZAR Conversion

Daily spot exchange rate. A 10% ZAR depreciation = ~10% fuel price increase.

Current: R16.85/$
3

Freight & Insurance

AFRA rate, demurrage, cargo dues, 0.3% ocean loss, marine insurance.

Current: +89c/L
4

Government Levies

GFL (R3.93), RAF (R2.18), DSML, IP Tracer, various industry levies.

Total: ~R6.11/L
5

Final Pump Price

Published first Wednesday of each month for the coming month.

R23.63/L
Petrol 95 Inland

Why "Import Parity" Pricing?

South Africa lost significant refining capacity when SAPREF closed and others reduced output. The BFP formula assumes what it would cost to buy refined fuel internationally and ship it here. This means we pay global prices for products we used to refine locally — plus shipping.

Brent Crude vs ZAR/USD (12 Months)
The two variables that drive most of your fuel price
Dual Axis

Active Risks

Hormuz Disruption95%
Red Sea/Houthi88%
ZAR Volatility72%
Crack Spread Pressure64%

Supply-Demand Balance

Global Supply101.8 mb/d
Global Demand104.5 mb/d
Deficit-2.7 mb/d

The market is undersupplied by 2.7 million barrels daily. This supports elevated prices.

Price Trajectory

Brent has risen 24% in 6 months. Analysts forecast $110-120/bbl if Hormuz tensions persist through Q2.

Currency Impact

The ZAR has weakened 11% YoY. Every R1 depreciation adds approximately R0.70 to petrol prices.

Next Adjustment

April 3, 2026: Expected diesel increase of R1.80-2.20/L based on under-recovery accumulation.

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Data sourced from CEF Group, DMRE, National Treasury, Stats SA, SARB, IEA, SARS • March 2026